A new study by Nemertes Research indicates that the blogosphere might get stuck in a bog by 2010. The study compares rising demand to infrastructure to paint a murky picture for what is in store in the coming years.
Personally, the first thing I think of when I see an article like this is: Who's bucking for a bigger budget? Label me a conspiracy theorist if you wish, but it does seem that "scares" seem to come about around the same time that budgets are being made.
As for the Nermertes study, I do have a problem with it. It gauges demand based on Internet usage without restriction. In other words, what would demand be like if there was no limitation on how fast people can go. That's kind of like saying that if everyone was driving sports car, people will drive faster, so in the future we need to be prepared for people driving faster.
The fact is we aren't all driving a sports car. And we won't all be getting on the Internet through a fiber optic connection come 2010. So, using that as a model for demand, and then saying that demand will be higher than what the infrastructure can support is inherently flawed.
Another issue with the study is that it starts out saying the Internet could slow down as early as 2010 (approximately two years from now), goes on to say "a little more than two years," and then finally admits the infrastructure will not be adequate in three to five years.
Certainly, with the rise of streaming video and mobile Internet devices, there is some concern about the infrastructure holding everything together, but I don't think it is quite as dire as this study makes it out to be.